Post-election thoughts

I didn't end up posting about the election anywhere near as much as I had wanted to, too many other things on. Now it's all over, finally. So what is there to say?

In the election I started off being quite enthused by Nick Clegg and his refreshing message about doing something different. Then later, I veered back towards Labour, as the only alternative that could keep the Conservatives out, realistically. In reality though I was hoping for a hung parliament to really shake things up.

In the end I voted for Labour. It was quite a marginal Labour / Conservative seat in my area, I wanted to keep the Conservatives out and I thought far too many people were picking on Gordon Brown, or voting for the opposition because they didn't like Gordon Brown personally (he doesn't come across very well). I think Brown has consistently been a hard working politician, doing what he thinks is right for the country and just getting on with his job. In the last couple of years, the people that have really got on my wick have been those who say something like 'I agree Labour has really made a positive difference in the NHS, they've got class sizes down, made the country and safe place etc but I just don't like Gordon Brown so am voting Tory...'

There's something quite empowering about turning up to vote at your local polling station, a feeling that you are doing your bit, making a difference, standing up for what you believe in. That's the reason I wouldn't want to vote by post, it just wouldn't be the same. Election night, despite not having been well the previous couple of days I was determined to stay up and watch at least some of it. The exit polls came in, predicted a hung parliament but almost a Conservative majority. I prayed it wasn't so.

At this point I should probably try and elucidate why I don't like the Conservatives so much. I think it's my upbringing, in a very pro-Labour household. I grew up believing the Conservatives weren't much interested in helping the little guy, the man on the street. They were pro big business, for the rich. A lot of this was Margaret Thatcher, stamping on the miners, telling everyone to look out for themselves and no-one else. I don't know how true this is anymore, and I certainly agree with certain aspects of the Conservatives, like trying to get lazy people off benefits etc.

It was obvious as election night progressed that there was going to be no quick resolution, and how very true that turned out to be. The next day it turned out that the exit poll had been virtually spot on. The Conservatives were the largest party, but 20 short of an overall majority. The Lib Dems did badly, and actually lost several seats, rather than the large gains they had been predicted. They suddenly held the balance of power however and there was three way negotiations as both Labour and Conservatives tried to form an alliance with them. In the end, they went with the Conservatives, forming a coalition government. I think this was the right thing to happen, as the Conservatives got over a million more votes that Labour. It seems the Lib Dems negotiated themselves a good deal, including a referendum on voting reform, and working towards increasing personal allowance towards £10,000. I think the Lib Dems will end up softening a lot of the Conservatives harsher policies, so the combination may be the best one for the country right now, in a time of economic difficulty when we need to get the deficit down. Plus Labour are now the only real opposition. The government are going to have to make unpopular decisions, and when the next election happens, Labour will (with a new leader) be in a strong position to defeat Conservatives and Lib Dems.

It is worth briefly mentioning the new governments plans for fixed 5 year parliaments (a good thing probably), and needing 55% in a vote of no confidence to force a general election before then (funny, that means Conservatives don't need anyone else to support them to stay in power, hmmm) which I don't think is very good. If 51% disagree with you, you will never get any laws passed, so why stick around like a lame duck? As Andrew Marr pointed out today. 51% could vote to repeal the new legislation, then call a vote of no confidence and pass it with 51% so what is the point?

The next thing to look forward to is the emergency budget within 50 days. As a tax advisor this should keep me busy, and it will be interesting to see what they do. We are teetering on a knife edge trying to escape recession, so I just hope the Conservatives don't wreck it with all their cuts. Only time will tell.

General election

We are about halfway through the election campaign now, and my opinion of it changes every few days. I started off being really excited by it, watching a lot of news and tv, Reading the papers and so on. Then I think I got electioned out and sick of it. The Conservatives were alas going to win, and that was that. I was ready to volunteer to hand out leaflets for labour to do my bit, even if I thought it was lost cause. Then came the first tv debate. Nick Clegg the Lib Dem leader whose party was in a distant third place, won convincingly and suddenly it all started getting a bit interesting. Of course given the biased, unproportional voting system we have, it is near impossible for Lib Dems to win, but it is very possible that they will greatly increase their seats in parliament and have the balance of power if no side has a working majority. A hung parliament could be very interesting. The second tv debate was a draw really, and the ten point bounce in the polls remains. One final debate on the economy this week. 12 days to election day. More soon.


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General Election campaign begins...

It's general election time in the UK again, and this, along with the World Cup, is one of the big events of the year. I've always had some interest in politics, but there are long periods of boredom with only the occasional interesting happenings. This election is shaping up to be very interesting, it is a full 5 years since the last one (the legal maximum gap) and it's been 13 years since we had a realistic prospect of a change in government. It's been even longer since there was any real doubt as to the outcome - you have to go back to 1992 for that, and since the first general election I could vote in was 2001, it's the first really interesting election I've been able to participate in. I just missed out on being able to vote in the 1997 election, though my parents allowed me to stay up all night to watch, and it really was exciting stuff as the Labour party won by the biggest landslide in modern times.

For any non-British readers, or British readers who don't know anything about our UK politics, a brief summary. The UK is a parliamentary democracy, so you vote for a party, not a prime minister. The country is divided into 650 constituencies (4 more than last time), and voters in each constituency vote for an MP for that constituency. There will be candidates from all the major parties in each constituency, and the candidate with the most votes becomes the MP for that constituency. To form a government, you generally need more than 50% of the MPs in parliament, so at least 326. Labour currently has a majority of 48, and to get a majority the Conservatives need about 130 more seats this time.

The major political parties are:

Labour - currently in government, leader is Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Historically party for working classes but 'New Labour' in the mid-1990s changed all that and blurred the dividing lines between parties.

Conservatives - the second biggest party, with around 200 seats in the current parliament. Leader is David Cameron. They are ahead in the polls, so have a good chance of getting elected. Traditionally the party of the middle classes, they believe in smaller government, greater partnership with private sector etc.

Liberal Democrats - the third party, with 62 seats in parliament this time. Leader Nick Clegg, but Vince Cable, their equivalent of Chancellor of the Exchequer is very popular. Realistically cannot win a majority, but could hold the balance of power if there is a hung parliament.

Green Party - green/environmental party. Currently no seats in parliament.

UK Independance Party - believes Britain should leave the EU. Has some following, but has no seats in Parliament.

British National Party - ultra right wing party, generally considered to be racist. Believe in 'repatriating' foreigners, encouraging people not native British born to leave. Some following in run-down areas, but no MPs in parliament.

Realistically, the chances of Green Party, BNP or UKIP getting m(any) seats very slim, due to first past the post system (they may receive a reasonable share of the popular vote, but spread to thin to win seats in constituencies).

So there is a good chance of a change in government, a good chance of a hung parliament (where no party has an overall majority), but no one knows. If a hung parliament, no one knows what will happen but it will be a mess - hasn't happened since the early 1970s.

I live in Lancaster, which is the 81st most marginal seat, and one the Conservatives must win if they are to be elected. So a battleground state!